Friday, December 11, 2009, 4:44PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Beware Crisis' Next Wave: Option ARM Foreclosures, More Debt Defaults

Posted May 08, 2009 01:15pm EDT by Aaron Task

Along with the reaction to the stress tests, the upbeat response to Friday's jobs report is evidence of our collective "disaster fatigue," says William Black, an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri - Kansas City. "Every day is bringing a disaster. [539,000] jobs lost is a catastrophe but now we think ‘that's not so bad.'"

An optimist would say Black is missing the improving trend in the labor market: Although the unemployment rate rose to 8.9%, its highest level since 1983, April's 539,000 job loss was the smallest since October and compares favorably to March's decline of 699,000, February's 681,000 (both revised) and January's 741,000.

But Black's point is the improvements are, if not illusory, then certainly transitory. He foresees bad loan "shoes yet to drop" that will be like "Imelda Marcos' closet in an earthquake":

  • Commercial Real Estate: This is already on Wall Street's radar screen but future losses could account for a big chunk of the government's stress test estimate of $599 billion of future bank losses.
  • Option ARMs: These "pick-a-payment" mortgages will lead to "waves of foreclosures" starting next year in the "hundreds of billions of dollars," he predicts.
  • Credit Card Debt: With unemployment rising and home equity loans unavailable to most Americans, this is a "major problem that's going to take down major lenders," he says.
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204 Comments

Starswon
Starswon - Friday May 08, 2009 01:20PM EDT

FILE BANKRUPTCY CHAPTER 7 AND LET THE BANKS CHOKE ON EMPTY HOUSES AND CREDIT CARDS. KEEP YOU CASH AND DONT USE CREDIT FOR ANY REASON...THAT IS THE ONLY WAY TO SURVIVE THIS "WE THE BANKS, WE THE GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE" MENTALITY!! www.constitutionparty.com

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 08, 2009 01:25PM EDT

You're not allowed to talk about unpleasant things. There are some posters who are very delicate and sensitive. Remember their feelings. Thank you.

roland
roland - Friday May 08, 2009 01:28PM EDT

great ! if you know the future then act on it. buy those put options , sell, sell. even if it is true , r u looking for attention, were u so much ignored recently ! be positive prof.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 08, 2009 01:29PM EDT

Pish posh, who needs to work when Barry has your back? Now go convert your unemployment check into the stocks of your favorite bank.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 08, 2009 01:30PM EDT

Hopefully a lot of these people re-financed, if not they are SOL.

G.
G. - Friday May 08, 2009 01:32PM EDT

I've followed this man for years and he's on top of his game... a very smart man... has common sense... which Wall Street and Congress lack.

Bill
Bill - Friday May 08, 2009 01:32PM EDT

Foreclosures will not stop for a long time; meaning prices will go down until 2012 at least. Good thing I saw this coming and advised some of my friends to sell. Now when people ask me if it is the time to buy, I say let it go down another 20% first at least.-----------There are ways to stop all this, but unfortunately our President and Congress are way behind the curve and can't figure it out. And they don't tell people the truth, either, about what to expect here. In addition, they do not have the will or intelligence to make the decisive moves to get ahead of the curve of foreclosures. ---------- By Obama having 4 times as much budget deficit in 2009 as Bush did last year in 2008, we are plain stupid to not expect big trouble ahead. Right now our debt (sale of bonds) are not going well with the massive amounts of this year and next and next and next.. Too hard to figure out, I guess, of the negative consequences of too much massive debt and budget deficits. China will stop buying up these bonds and supporting our massive spending habits (especially of Obama), then we are all doomed to have much higher interest rates or big inflation, along with a near worthless dollar and the near end of America's middle class. Too bad. Hope a few of you have some gold and silver coins and stocks. Your time is coming; look for a gold mania within 5 years.

James
James - Friday May 08, 2009 01:33PM EDT

Agree with this guy completely! I'm tired of the hypey financial "experts" lately telling us that everything is fine because we've hit bottom. Well, for one thing, we can troll along near the bottom for a long time before a true recovery takes hold, so any optimism may be premature. But the thing that really bugs me is when, like today, job loss numbers come out less-abysmal than they did last month, so that's considered an "improvement" by the Wall Street con artist team. Ummm, when you're in a deep hole, as we are, and you are digging deeper, even if you are digging down at a reduced rate, you're still getting deeper into a hole!

Bob
Bob - Friday May 08, 2009 01:33PM EDT

Just looked out my window- Local industries still laying off at levels never seen here before. Nice unsold houses piling up Local infrastructure is a mess My IRA is still down...a bunch Everything is getting more expensive Yeah...things are turning around :(

T's
T's - Friday May 08, 2009 01:35PM EDT

William Black is a Quack!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday May 08, 2009 01:35PM EDT

All is lost! Don't buy anything again until everything is peachy and all problems have been resolved. It's doom and gloom out there. If you think things are improving, you're deluded. The past seven weeks have been a sucker's rally. We've got to talk up the negative as much as possible on Short Ticker.

fitty k
fitty k - Friday May 08, 2009 01:37PM EDT

Yes, this type of information is hate speech that has not been cleared by the administration. I must disregard. The banks are great. Our leader spoke clearly in this regard. We now must focus our collective efforts to ensure that the BCS is abolished for a college football playoff system.

freemarketer
freemarketer - Friday May 08, 2009 01:37PM EDT

Do you weirdos ever talk about anything positive? I've made close to 700k simply better against you folks. When you turn positive, I will sell everything I have bought. Do you think Geithner has not factored in losse's from variable interest loans? And if they reset, they can be refinanced. Jesus....lighten up.

fitty k
fitty k - Friday May 08, 2009 01:37PM EDT

Yes, this type of information is hate speech that has not been cleared by the administration. I must disregard. The banks are great. Our leader spoke clearly in this regard. We now must focus our collective efforts to ensure that the BCS is abolished for a college football playoff system.

paul
paul - Friday May 08, 2009 01:38PM EDT

Commercial is already covered by Bernanke's statement earlier this week that it will be eligible for TARP,TALF and everything else under the Sun. Option Arms are next year's problem, One Year at a time please. By the time they become a problem, we will be calling them Fixed Mortgages. The Majority of homes are owned by the Baby Boomers like myself who have paid off their mortgages and have equity available because they have lived through these cycles before.

Luca
Luca - Friday May 08, 2009 01:38PM EDT

Wise words Starswon !

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Friday May 08, 2009 01:38PM EDT

Grape vine has it that a large holder is selling their 30 year US treasury bonds with absolutely no plans to buy back. This despite the Feds plan to pump 300 bill (more monopoly money) into US bonds. Currently we may be seeing the lowest mortgage loan rates we'll see for years..... Heavey sigh, I miss the old recession fix days of Fed fiscal responsibility and tax breaks for tax payers.

frequent diner
frequent diner - Friday May 08, 2009 01:38PM EDT

Can you please once provide a disclosure of you or your guests postions - especially when you mention specific stocks. Most crediible financial news outlets do this.

G.
G. - Friday May 08, 2009 01:39PM EDT

---- The top six banks in America are sitting on almost $200 TRILLION in mostly bad derivatives and technically bankrupt. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Lie, lie, lie that's the American way. Hitler practiced it during World War II and now the Fed, Treasury, Wall Street & US Government practice it... for last 9 years that’s all we've heard... one lie after another...the bigger the lie more likely the people will believe it. Wake up people... Goldman Sachs & Wall Street run America... they own us people... they've got Washington by the nuts and squeezing down hard. This has got to stop

Jeff
Jeff - Friday May 08, 2009 01:39PM EDT

WHAT IF RATES STAY LOW? AND ARMS RESET AT LOWER LEVELS ANOTHER NEGATIVE VID BY BLODGETT THE LIAR

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